Gardnerville Ranchos, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

802
FXUS65 KREV 231955
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1255 PM PDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm temperatures through Thursday.

* Increasing winds and fire weather concerns Friday & Saturday.

* Much cooler temperatures for the weekend with showers possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* Temperatures peaking today will gradually cool Wednesday and
  Thursday accompanied by typical zephyr breezes. HeatRisk remains
  moderate for many areas into Thursday. A few buildups or very
  isolated t-storms are possible based on HREF - mainly over high
  Sierra or far NE California.

* Massive pattern change Friday into the weekend with anomalous
  cold trough digging into the west, with sub-zero 700mb
  temperatures expected. Highly unusual for late June.

* Anytime we see max temps drop from the upper 90s to low/mid 70s
  in summer, we`re going to get some wind and sure enough Friday
  & Saturday will be breezy. ECMWF EFI hitting 0.75 to 0.85 on the
  wind which is notable. NBM showing 70% chance for gusts 35+ mph
  for much of W Nevada and the Eastern Sierra, and 20% for 45+
  mph (which is our wind advisory threshold). Saturday looks to be
  more of a sustained wind issue, whereas Friday it`s the gusts
  that`ll be impactful. So clearly this is a fire weather concern
  with dry fuels in lower/mid elevations, even with increasing
  humidity (RH mins 12-20%) and a few showers possible. Winds
  could also be impactful for air/road travel and backcountry
  recreation.

* Showers are looking more likely with deterministic models
  showing bands of precip developing both Friday & Saturday,
  mainly I-80 northward. Generally about a 20-40% chance of
  measurable rain each day along/north of I-80, with 10-20% odds
  of a wetting rain in places like Susanville, Portola, and
  Cedarville. With that cold air, snow lines drop pretty low for
  late June - NBM showing 7200-8500` on Saturday for example.
  Within heavier showers a coating of snow is possible. NBM
  indicating 10-20% chance of measurable snow for Sierra crest.
  Could definitely catch backcountry folks off-guard.

* Temperatures will be well below normal for late June, with
  80-90% probability of highs below 80F for W Nevada cities
  including Reno. Similar percentages for mountain communities if
  you adjust the threshold to 70F. Sunday & Monday mornings will
  be crisp with 80-100% chance of mountain towns seeing frosts
  (less than 36F). 30% chance of that at Minden and other typical
  cold valleys. Could be an issue for sensitive vegetation.

* For next week and as we head into the Independence Day weekend,
  no significant weather hazards anticipated with temperatures
  warming to near normal with no big precip or wind signals in the
  AI ensemble data.

-Chris

&&

.AVIATION...

* VFR conditions with typical west/northwest breezes each
  afternoon today and tomorrow. Gusts on the order of 20-25 knots.

* Winds aloft increase tonight with models showing 30 knots at
  700mb at 6z/Wed so have included wind shear in TVL/TRK TAFs.

* Slight uptick in the winds Thursday with gusts 25-30 knots as
  low pressure trough approaches the west coast.

* Small potential for fog at TRK Wednesday 9-15z per LAMP
  guidance but likely to be patchy and shallow with drier RH
  versus this morning. 20% chance of brief LIFR at TRK so not
  included in TAF.

-Chris

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* Unusually strong cold front for late June projected to bring
  areas of critical fire weather conditions Friday and Saturday.
  Fire Weather Watches have been issued for the Sierra Front
  eastward into the Hwy 95 corridor.

* High confidence in seeing sustained winds 20-30 MPH with gusts
  above 40 MPH both days, W/SW direction on Friday and W/NW on
  Saturday. Saturday`s winds may end up being more of a sustained
  wind concern versus just the gusts. Almost an April-like pattern
  in late June.

* For areas in the watch along and north of a Carson City to
  Lovelock line, including Reno, the humidity may be just above
  RFW criteria, around 15-25% for afternoon minimums. But with
  plenty of dry fuels/grasses and recent significant lightning
  event last Friday with holdover potential, we felt it best to
  err on the side of being proactive by issuing the watch.

* One other area to be mindful of is the lower elevations of the
  Eastern Sierra along Hwy 6 and 395 below 7000` (e.g Chalfant
  Valley). Once confidence increases further, I could see us
  expanding the watch to this zone for Saturday as it usually
  responds well to NW gradient winds.

* Humidity recoveries Friday night into Saturday morning look
  good (45-75%), but winds will remain breezy for mid-slopes and
  ridges.

-Chris

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening
     NVZ420.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening
     NVZ423-429.

CA...&&

$$